Think $60K is the top? This Bitcoin fractal suggests it’s the next bear market bottom

3d rendering bitcoin gold logo black scaled

The cyclical nature of Bitcoin bull and bear markets means that $60,000 is mathematically more likely to be a floor, not a ceiling, in the future.

Bitcoin (BTC) may have hit highs of $60,000, but calculations suggest that the price level will matter much more to bears, not bulls.

In a tweet on Oct. 14, popular Twitter account TechDev again highlighted historical data that has so far accurately tracked Bitcoin’s highs and lows.

How about an 80% BTC price crash to… $60,000?

While BTC/USD is tipped to retake all-time highs and climb to six figures this year, investors’ attention is already turning to how far Bitcoin will fall after its next blow-off top.

The idea that BTC price action moves in cycles — with a bearish phase and a bottom of 80% of the blow-off top — has become widely accepted.

What is much harder to believe in current circumstances, however, is that $60,000 may just be the price floor of that potential 80% correction.

Using Fibonacci sequences, TechDev showed that each Bitcoin bear bottom fell within an identical range. This accounts for both the sub-$200 lows in 2014 and the roughly $3,200 floor in December 2018.

Given Bitcoin’s cyclical metamorphoses, the next logical retracement, therefore, has anywhere from $47,000 to $60,000 as a target.

“I know no one cares about macro during a pump. But the last two BTC bear markets bottomed in the 1.486-1.618 log fib pocket of the previous cycle,” he commented.

“Suggests the next bear bottom is 47-60K. If that’s where we land after an 80-85% fall… The math gets fun.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: TechDev/Twitter

$60,000 as 20% of the top puts Bitcoin in line for a test of $300,000 this cycle.

Uncanny resemblances to gold

The momentum behind Bitcoin has been tied to expectations that United States regulators will finally approve some form of Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Related: SEC likely to allow Bitcoin futures ETF to trade next week: Reports

While opinions on the impact of such a decision are mixed, its importance is no red herring, commentators say, and marks a genuine watershed for Bitcoin, which cannot be reversed.

Austrian investor and analyst Niko Jilch this week referenced famed investor Paul Tudor Jones while explaining the “excitement” over the Bitcoin ETF.

Tudor Jones had previously highlighted Bitcoin’s cycles being similar to gold in the 1970s — just when it had become a futures product itself and enjoyed a 10-year bull run followed by a 50% correction.

Gold’s 1970s rip, TechDev additionally noted, fits extremely neatly over Bitcoin’s performance since October 2020.

Ronnie Huss

Ronnie Huss

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Share:

Share on telegram
Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on whatsapp

Related Posts

bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 21,267.00
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) $ 1,221.79
tether
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00
usd-coin
USD Coin (USDC) $ 1.00
bnb
BNB (BNB) $ 240.78
xrp
XRP (XRP) $ 0.370311
binance-usd
Binance USD (BUSD) $ 1.00
cardano
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.501020
solana
Solana (SOL) $ 42.04
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) $ 8.24
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.067459
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000011
dai
Dai (DAI) $ 1.00
tron
TRON (TRX) $ 0.066089
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 20.76
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 21,262.00
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) $ 5.85
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 1,172.96
matic-network
Polygon (MATIC) $ 0.600535
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) $ 56.73
ftx-token
FTX (FTT) $ 26.74
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) $ 7.27
stellar
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.129437
okb
OKB (OKB) $ 12.57
crypto-com-chain
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.127242
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 4.12
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) $ 5.55
algorand
Algorand (ALGO) $ 0.353344
cosmos
Cosmos Hub (ATOM) $ 8.25
monero
Monero (XMR) $ 126.64
ethereum-classic
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 16.53
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 113.59
chain-2
Chain (XCN) $ 0.089830
theta-fuel
Theta Fuel (TFUEL) $ 0.056879
vechain
VeChain (VET) $ 0.025448
flow
Flow (FLOW) $ 1.73
hedera-hashgraph
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.074736
axie-infinity
Axie Infinity (AXS) $ 18.46
internet-computer
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 6.14
theta-token
Theta Network (THETA) $ 1.45
decentraland
Decentraland (MANA) $ 0.960407
the-sandbox
The Sandbox (SAND) $ 1.15
elrond-erd-2
Elrond (EGLD) $ 63.38
frax
Frax (FRAX) $ 1.00
tezos
Tezos (XTZ) $ 1.56
filecoin
Filecoin (FIL) $ 6.18
apecoin
ApeCoin (APE) $ 4.58
true-usd
TrueUSD (TUSD) $ 1.00
bitcoin-sv
Bitcoin SV (BSV) $ 64.12
helium
Helium (HNT) $ 11.37